Economic analysis and country risk land at Cámara Valencia

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Experts in economic analysis and country risk have shared their vision on the current economic situation, the panorama of default risks and business prospects at the conference “ Main trends in the global economy ”, held this morning in Valencia and organized by Cámara Valencia , Coface and CaixaBank .

During the first part of the day, Javier García , economist at the CaixaBank Email Data Research Service , Mikel Aguirre , head of Political and Sigle Risk at Coface in Spain and Portugal, and Paul Isbell , researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano and the Johns Hopkins University SAIS in Washington, have outlined the global economic situation and its risks.

Firstly, García has warned that, although at an international level " the growth of economies is synchronized and sustainable and we are in a mature cycle of the economy where the underuse of resources has decreased ", we must not lose sight of the macroeconomic, commercial and geopolitical risks.

Among the main macroeconomic risks, the inflationary risk stands out. “ The US economy is close to full employment and the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more rapidly ,” García assured . This situation could mean an outflow of capital from emerging economies, which until now have benefited from low rates from the American giant, and among those of most concern are Argentina and Turkey. Furthermore, the economist has warned that in the European Union we will have to be attentive to the change in ECB policies, although they will not arrive as quickly as in the US.

The change in the model of the Chinese economy, which will go from a strategy based on investment and industry to a model supported by services and consumption, could slow its growth rate from the current 7%, although it would be a more stable rate in time. In addition, this Asian country is concerned about the high corporate debt that reaches 165% of GDP, when the recommended level is up to 90%.

In reference to the situation in China, Aguirre pointed out the lack of information from its national banks and advised the businessmen present at the event to seek advice before investing in Email Data Chinese assets. Likewise, the head of Coface has warned of the problems that holding debt in dollars poses for economies if their currency devalues. “ They say the next crisis will be a currency war .”

Regarding geopolitical tensions, experts have agreed on the risk posed by the newly formed Italian government, which will delay the European integration project; the arrival of Brexit, whose conditions do not coincide with the interests of the Union; and the imminent elections in Colombia, Mexico, Brazil and Turkey that make it difficult to advance international agreements.



Isbell has spoken about American protectionism and Trump 's policies , who has accused Trump of applying a simplistic economy to the leadership of the most influential country in the world. “ Trump does not accept the system of multilateral collaboration and tries to close bilateral policies that encourage geopolitical competition. He understands the economy as an international jungle ."

Isbell has stated that in the short term this situation translates into economic volatility, in the medium term in tariff policies, and in the long term it puts the international liberal trade order at risk. “ We have to remain calm, but without deceiving ourselves because we are closer than ever to the breakdown of the model ”, she concluded.